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FA Cup: the teams to outperform market expectations and embark on extended cup runs
Only Portsmouth in 2008 and Wigan in 2013 have managed to break the stranglehold Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool have had on this competition since 1996.
However, with Crystal Palace, Aston Villa (twice), Hull, Stoke, Cardiff, Everton, West Ham, Portsmouth, Millwall, Southampton, Newcastle (twice) and Middlesbrough all beaten finalists in the last 30 years, there is at least some hope of a trip to Wembley for supporters of so-called smaller clubs.
Indeed, Millwall and Cardiff were not in the Premier League when they reached the final and Southampton (2018), Watford, Everton (2009, 2012 and 2016), Reading (2015), Sheffield United and Wigan (2014), Millwall (2013) and Bolton (2011) have all been beaten semi-finalists in the last decade.
With that in mind here are some outsiders and best bets on teams that could have extended runs in this season’s competition.
The lower leagues
Fleetwood Town 1,500/1
When trying to identify teams who could go on an extended FA Cup run, it’s important to look at the third-round draw as the rest is beyond our control. As such, Joey Barton’s Fleetwood side have the easiest-looking match of any team in the bottom two divisions, having been drawn at home against League One strugglers AFC Wimbledon.
Fleetwood has one of the league’s in-form strikers in Paddy Madden and have a good home record, losing just three of their 13 league matches at Highbury Stadium.
AFC Wimbledon have improved under new manager Wally Downes but have still only won once away this season and Fleetwood should knock them out.
Shrewsbury 2,000/1
Shrewsbury’s struggles have all been on the road this season and they will probably get knocked out as soon as they draw a higher-league team away from home but there is every reason to think they can beat Stoke at home this weekend.
Sam Ricketts’ side have lost just two of their 12 matches at New Meadow and have one of the best home defensive records in the division.
Their opponents, Stoke, have shown improved form of late but are woeful away from the Britannia stadium, winning just two of their 13 matches, so it will not be the biggest surprise in the world if Shrewsbury make it into the hat for round four.
Luton 1,000/1
Luton are sandwiched between leaders Portsmouth and Sunderland in the League One title race and they face a tricky third-round match at Hillsborough against Sheffield Wednesday, who have just announced the appointment of Steve Bruce as their manager from February 1st.
However, Luton boss Nathan Jones will have been impressed with his side’s recent performances and they are unbeaten in their last five away matches, drawing with Walsall and beating Scunthorpe. Coventry, Bury and Gillingham.
They will be full of confidence and should provide a stern test for Sheffield Wednesday, who have lost more than half of their home games this season and whose supporters are showing signs of discontent.
Championship contenders
Bristol City 300/1
Bristol City are 11th in the Championship but are just one point behind seventh-placed Nottingham Forest.
Lee Johnson’s side are unbeaten in their last eight league matches, have the second-best defensive record in the division after Middlesbrough and have an attractive third-round tie at home to the Premier League’s bottom club Huddersfield this weekend.
In Senegalese striker Famara Diedhiou, Bristol City have a powerhouse forward and their best defender, club captain Bailey Wright, returned to strengthen the team after an eight-month injury layoff in the 2-0 win against Stoke on New Year’s Day.
Bristol City knocked out Watford, Stoke, Crystal Palace and Manchester United before losing a two-leg semi-final 5-3 on aggregate against Manchester City in last season’s league cup and another decent run could well be on the cards.
West Brom 100/1
Darren Moore has done a great job since being appointed manager of West Brom who are well placed to make an automatic promotion push.
With Dwight Gayle, Jay Rodriguez and Harvey Barnes scoring 34 league goals between them this season, they have more than enough firepower to worry some bigger teams if Moore chooses to select a strong cup side.
A third-round draw at home to fellow Championship side Wigan gives them every opportunity to progress to the next round and some kind ties should give them every chance of reaching the latter stages of the competition.
Derby 150/1
New Derby manager Frank Lampard has an FA Cup pedigree, winning the competition four times with Chelsea and his Derby side have shown ability against highly rated sides, knocking out Hull, Rotherham and Manchester United before losing 3-2 to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, and they have a winnable home tie against Southampton this weekend.
New Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl is likely to take this opportunity to evaluate the abilities of some of the fringe members of his squad so a much-changed team is likely to take to the field at Pride Park.
If Lampard picks a team as strong as the ones he selected in the league cup, they could cause bigger teams a fright.
Premier League outsiders
West Ham United 50/1
West Ham face a tricky opening third-round tie at home to Birmingham who have confounded their Championship critics.
Garry Monk’s side are up to seventh in that division despite having one of the smaller squads in the league and could pose West Ham some problems.
However, West Ham have some quality attackers at their disposal and are unlikely to be involved in a relegation battle, so Manuel Pellegrini is surely one of only a few managers who will be actively targeting FA Cup glory.
A host of injuries have hampered West Ham lately but the signing of Samir Nasri after his doping ban adds strength to the squad.
Watford 50/1
Watford are sitting comfortably in mid-table in the Premier League and should make a cup run a priority.
Javi Gracia’s side take on non-league Woking in the third round and should safely negotiate that tie before taking on better teams.
It’s worth noting that Watford knocked out Tottenham in the other domestic cup competition and have also beaten them in the league, while defeats by the odd goal against Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City suggest that they can compete against the bigger sides if drawn against them.
The top six
Success in the Champions League and Europa League may well have a direct bearing on how the traditional top six perform in the FA Cup and it’s worth noting that in the last 15 years only Chelsea (three times) have won this competition after progressing past the first knockout stage in the Champions League.
It is, therefore, worth trying to work out which English team is most likely to exit European competition earliest and then back them to win the FA Cup.
At first glance, the obvious team to choose is Manchester United, who face a daunting task over two legs against Paris Saint-Germain. It is likely that they will be eliminated but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has his players performing with flair and passion once more.
Liverpool also face a tough tie against Bayern Munich but, even if Jurgen Klopp’s side do get knocked out, they will be in the heat of a domestic title battle and will be prioritising that, with only one team in the last 15 years (Chelsea in 2009-10) achieving the double.
You will fail to make money by backing all the top six and Manchester City are ruled out because of their ability to go deep in the Champions League this season.
Of the other teams, Tottenham face a tough test against Borussia Dortmund who are top of the Bundesliga, and will be of plenty of interest if they fail to negotiate that tie, while Arsenal and Chelsea, despite playing weaker teams in the Europa League, have the ability to make at least the quarter finals in that competition.
Best bets
Manchester United 9/1
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has Manchester United playing with more intensity, aggression and flair than any time in the Jose Mourinho era and will surely be targeting success of some sort if he is to retain hope of landing the job on a full-time basis. With Manchester United still unlikely to progress past Paris Saint-Germain when the Champions League returns in February, Solskjaer is likely to turn his attentions to the FA Cup to end the season with some silverware. His side have an easy third-round tie at home to Reading and are good value to win this competition at 9/1.
Tottenham 8/1
There may be doubts over whether Mauricio Pochettino will be on the touchline at Tottenham’s new stadium next season but his side have a great chance of finally delivering a trophy this season. Although technically still in the title race, it is unlikely they will outgun Liverpool or Manchester City for the top honour, while they face a tricky tie against Borussia Dortmund in the first knockout stage of the Champions League. Defeat against that German side would make them an extremely attractive FA Cup proposition.
Watford 50/1
Javi Gracia’s side are eighth in the Premier League, have no relegation worries and are blessed with a decent squad with very few injury worries going into the second half of the season. They are capable of scoring - they are averaging two goals a game in their last seven league matches - and perform well against the bigger clubs. An easy third-round tie against Woking should ensure they are in the hat for the next round and there are worse 50/1 shots to back.